In my life, I am a person prone to pedantry. I like everything in my home to have a specific place. And I like to arrange my thoughts in a coherent logical sequence. And today, I intend to do just that with regard to the Russian attack on Poland. Step by step.
Let's start with the basics.
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1/ Poland is a target of Russian aggression in and of itself. This has no direct connection to the war in Ukraine. It does not depend on what we do, or how pro-Russian or anti-Russian our policy is. It depends very little on us at all. Simply put, as part of Russia's plan to rebuild its empire, we stand in their way as an independent state. Even if Poland were ruled by the most friendly Polish government possible, and it simply sought to preserve Polish sovereignty, it would still be a target for Russia. Because the Russians do not need friendship, kind words, or favorable trade with them. They need submission to their will.
I did not come up with this myself; I am not some warmonger with an anti-Russian obsession. Russia's goals towards Poland were defined by the country itself in its ultimatum of November 2021, in which it demanded that the US, without any participation from us in this agreement, guarantee that Russia would decide what troops and what weapons could be stationed on Polish territory (as well as in other countries in our region). And contrary to the comments of many experts at the time, these were not deliberately excessive or absurd demands on Russia's part. It was exactly what they really wanted from the US. The Russians later repeated these demands many times through their highest officials. Even this year, there have been repeated calls for the US and Russia to eliminate the root causes of the conflict in order to achieve lasting peace. In Russia's view, these root causes do not lie in the fact that the Maidan took place in Kiev in 2014, but in the fact that, according to Russia, NATO has encroached on its sphere of influence, which is a threat to Russia.
In fact, Russia demands that Poland and other countries in the region become a buffer zone. A buffer zone in which Russia will have a say in shaping defense and economic policy. The stakes in this game are different for Poland and Ukraine. Ukraine simply has to become Russia in the long run, and while for Poland it is a matter of losing sovereignty, for Ukraine it is a matter of losing its statehood and national identity. But Poland is undoubtedly a target for Russian aggression in its own right. Ultimately, the choice is simple: we can either defend ourselves or accept Russia's demands.
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2/ Ukraine does not want to drag Poland into the war. It is a myth that this is in Ukraine's interest. While Russia is directly demanding a reduction in the military potential present on Polish territory, Ukraine's interest is directly opposite. Ukrainians are not afraid of a heavily armed Poland. They believe that this is exactly what is in their interest. Poland, which is strong in itself, does not need to give Ukraine a single zloty in support; it is enough that it is simply strong and cares about its own sovereignty and independence from Russia. And that is enough for Ukraine, because if Poland does not succumb to Russian demands, it automatically means that Russia must reckon with Polish potential and fear it. It must build its response to this potential by diverting significant resources from Ukraine.
Dragging Poland into a war at a time when the Republic of Poland does not yet have this potential, is not able to repel massive missile and drone attacks, and when all Ukrainian logistics and connections with Western countries currently go through Poland, is absurd. And the Ukrainians understand very well that Poland is not ready for this. So the thesis that Ukraine wants to drag Poland into the war, exposing its own rear to destruction... is simply propaganda.
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3/ Based on the above theses, Russia is deliberately attacking Poland. I wrote about this years ago, explaining that Poland is already at war. For the reason I described in point 1. The degree of Russian aggression is determined solely by how many resources Russia has. In a situation where Ukraine is drawing away most of Russia's conventional resources, we will be the victims of increasingly intense hybrid attacks. The goal of Russia's hybrid campaign against Poland is clear. It is exactly the same as in the case of similar attacks on other countries: destabilization. It is an attempt to achieve its goal without engaging in full-scale war.
The goal is to sow confusion. To undermine trust in the government and one's own country, to sow fear among citizens of the outbreak of war, to torpedo the Polish economy by planting appropriate narratives in the information space, and to sow discord among Poles themselves and between Poles and Ukrainians. In 2014, the Russians fired heavily on the Ukrainian army with artillery from Russian territory and sent their regular troops into Ukraine, lying through their teeth to the whole world that they had nothing to do with it. The world did not react, and that is why it will be exactly the same now. I have written about this many times, that sooner or later we will be attacked more and more strongly, and the Russians will say outright that these are not their drones and not their missiles. Because, given the anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland and the fear of war with Russia, a significant part of Polish public opinion is ready to accept Russian lies. Of course, Russia is also testing our capabilities, preparing the way for larger-scale attacks, and testing the reaction of the US and other Polish allies.
It is worth noting that there is nothing new or special about these Russian actions. They are following the same scenarios and the same path they have used many times before. Because these operations are planned by the same people using the same principles and, incidentally, making exactly the same mistakes. It was enough to simply observe Russian methods of hybrid warfare closely to predict what would happen next.
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4/ I have already seen many comments that are reassuring and suggest that NATO has responded effectively. And this situation only causes mobilization and strengthening of the eastern flank. This will indeed happen, but in the form in which it is taking place now, it plays into the hands of the Russians. The response of Poland and its allies to this attack was INEFFECTIVE. Because all these actions are taken within the framework of the same old concepts. NATO has a technological advantage over Russia and has better planes, better rockets, better missiles, etc. Everything is high-tech and advanced... and that is why there is not much of it and it is all terribly expensive. Supplies are limited and the scale of production is small. And that is exactly the point, to now draw us into a race in which we will use up our precious stocks to counteract the spamming of us with cheap drones. And if we don't do that, then those drones will start to really hurt us. NATO is too slow to react to the situation and too slow to draw conclusions. Poland, for its part, is even slower than others. We still do not understand the fundamental change that has taken place on the battlefield—scale is back. War is intense, protracted, and dominated by mass-produced cheap weapons. They are produced in such large quantities that it is impossible to keep up with them using traditional Western weapons, which are many times more expensive but more advanced. Many countries in the West already realize this, but it will take many years to rebuild and move away from the concept of high-tech, low-intensity warfare. Defending against Russian attacks must be effective not only on the first or 10th or 30th day of the war, but perhaps after a year or two of conflict. The Russians are currently producing at least 500 drones per day. Production runs 24/7. What they used to attack us will be produced in one hour! And how long does it take to produce the number of air-to-air missiles that were used to shoot them down? What is their price? How many flight hours of our advanced aircraft are needed to shoot them down?
Our system, which responds to similar attacks, must be adequate to the attack itself and the means used in it. At the moment, on this side of the front, only one country has a similar system that is effective and adequate - Ukraine. There is no one else. No one else has this experience and no one else here will help us build an effective defense. Adding more aircraft and using more expensive missiles is a road to nowhere. In the short term, if we have no other choice, it is clear that we will be forced to use up our precious resources... but we must immediately catch up and stop ignoring the problem that we have been ignoring for three years.
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5/ In Poland, I have repeatedly heard voices saying that there is no cooperation with Ukraine because Zelensky does not like us and does not want this cooperation. Ukraine has just responded to this attack with a proposal to support Poland in building a defense system against drone attacks. Which, by the way, may even be based on Polish-made systems that are already operating effectively in this field in Ukraine. I was surprised by the Ukrainian side's pragmatic and rational approach to the matter. There have been many comments from influential people in the Ukrainian public sphere (military, volunteers, journalists) who, first of all, sharply criticize the mockery of Western countries' lack of preparedness for a similar attack (such voices were also heard there), emphasizing that Poland and other European countries are the rear for Ukraine, without whose support Ukraine will not survive, and that Ukraine must act responsibly and share its technologies and experience to help Europe become immune to this type of threat.
And this is already happening. Today, in the UK, Ukraine is signing an agreement on the production of Ukrainian interceptor drones on UK territory, with the transfer of Ukrainian technology to the British.
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6/ The Netherlands is sending us additional F-35 aircraft, the Swedes will send Gripen fighters, the Czechs will send combat helicopters, etc. May I ask where the US is on this list, given that just a week ago it so strongly confirmed its presence and its guarantees for Poland? What is the United States sending to strengthen Poland's defense? Where are the White House's firm declarations? “What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones?” asks Donald Trump on his Truth Social account. A question addressed to the universe.
From my point of view, the United States is currently provoking Russia to attack Poland. Exactly. Because American policy is ambiguous. It would be logical to expect that the US would either make a deal with Russia, paying for it with the interests of Ukraine and Central European countries. Or, conversely, it would start to actively counter Russian ambitions to force Russia to make peace on its terms. At the same time, the Americans are doing neither. Talks with Russia have reached a dead end. The US has offered the Kremlin many carrots to persuade Russia to reach an agreement, but has not offered anything that Putin is really interested in. The White House has made numerous statements suggesting that European affairs are the responsibility of Europeans, but at the same time, it has declared that the American presence on the eastern flank will remain unchanged, and may even increase if necessary.
What conclusion will the Russians draw from this? Knowing their way of thinking, the answer is obvious to me – they should ESCALATE AND ATTACK to test the real intentions of the Americans and the real limits of their involvement in Europe. With the current approach, the United States no longer serves to deter Russia and does not prevent it from attacking countries on the eastern flank. Because the entire credibility of the Americans did not depend on the presence in Europe of forces capable of actually stopping the Russians in some way. There are no such forces in Europe. The whole point was that the Americans could get involved and these forces could appear here. And on the fear of a face-to-face confrontation with a nuclear power. This no longer deters hybrid attacks, because the Russians do not believe that Donald Trump will take any steps in response that will really hurt Russia. And I must emphasize that even sending air defense systems or combat aircraft to Poland will not be such a step for Russia. Because this is a defensive approach, which, as I wrote above, also serves to deplete Western resources.
So how does our “insurance policy” work in practice? What does it insure us against?
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7/ And finally, a little optimism. I will say something paradoxical. Contrary to appearances, the Ukrainian experience shows that the Russian version of hybrid warfare DOES NOT WORK. Its effects are the opposite of what Russia intended. In the short term, these actions give a sense of success, but in the long term, this hybrid war acts as a kind of vaccine. Russia's opponents are sick and suffering, but in the long run, it does not kill them, and their immunity increases. And later, what could have been effective in a surprise attack no longer works. This is exactly how Russia, from an absolutely pacifist Ukrainian nation... has built itself a heavily armed, militant opponent, which in the fourth year of the war is destroying its strategic air force 5,000 km deep into Russian territory. Russia is the creator of its own problems precisely because it relies on this famous concept of hybrid warfare.
And, of course, in the case of Poland, it may be different. We can be pessimistic and assume that Poles will not be able to cope as well as Ukrainians. But I see no reason to think so. I believe that despite the mess that will now ensue, Russia's actions are actually forcing Western countries to strengthen their cooperation with Ukraine in order to learn from its experience in countering Russia. This will combine with Western technological and industrial capabilities and will not only allow new effective systems to be built in Western countries, but will also give Ukraine additional production scale and strengthen its capabilities. This will be the strategic effect of such attacks.
Unfortunately, I have no doubt that Russia will only expand its hybrid aggression against Poland. As I wrote in point 1, Poland is a target in itself for them, and because their involvement in Ukraine prevents them from engaging all the power of their conventional forces to put direct pressure on Poland, they will intensify the hybrid war. This is the only method they know and understand. But at the same time, I do not believe that this will knock us down. We will get used to this aggression and Russian narratives. The Russians will continue to escalate, their involvement will become increasingly obvious, and, as was the case with Ukraine, they will force us and our partners to break out of this decision-making paralysis and take active measures to counter their activities.
Hybrid warfare is not a brilliant way to defeat an opponent. It is risky stupidity. Instead of defeating the opponent, it often strengthens them step by step and prepares them for war in such a way that later, when war finally breaks out, the methods that could have knocked your enemy down are no longer capable of killing them. ______________________________________________________________
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